ArbitrumARB
Chain reportGenerated just now · data tier: auto-baseline · refresh
Overview
Quadrant: Speculative bet
Risk / opportunity quadrant
Peer positions are proxies (cap percentile for risk, 90d return percentile for opportunity), not full scores. Cohort: 228 peers in the same market cap band (top 250).
Price history
Network
Chain-level TVL, fees, stablecoin float, and ecosystem breadth
TVL history
Top protocols by TVL
| Spiko | RWA | $435.5M |
| Aave V3 | Lending | $421.3M |
| Hyperliquid Bridge | Bridge | $395.8M |
| GMX V2 Perps | Derivatives | $169.3M |
| Spark Savings | Yield | $158.1M |
| USD AI | RWA Lending | $157.9M |
| Uniswap V3 | Dexs | $147.8M |
| Pendle | Yield | $131.9M |
The token-level sections below analyze the chain's native asset (ARB).
Stats
Metric catalog computed at generation time. 228 peers in the same market cap band (top 250).
Market
| Metric | Value | Cohort percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $0.0891 | n/a |
| Market cap | $589.6M | 68 |
| Fully diluted valuation | $891.4M | n/a |
| MC / FDV Low values signal future dilution | 0.66 | 26 |
| 24h volume | $43.8M | 80 |
| Volume / MC turnover Liquidity proxy | 0.07 | 74 |
| Distance from ATH | -96.3% | 20 |
| 7d return | -3.0% | n/a |
| 30d return | +8.8% | n/a |
| 90d return | -31.1% | n/a |
| 365d return | -81.7% | n/a |
Supply and tokenomics
| Metric | Value | Cohort percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Circulating supply | 6,614,056,381 | n/a |
| Max supply | 10,000,000,000 | n/a |
| Dilution overhang (1 - MC/FDV) Approximation of unlock overhang. Verified unlock schedules are not wired in this build. | +33.9% | n/a |
Development
| Metric | Value | Cohort percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Commits (4 weeks) | 3 | n/a |
| PR contributors | 24 | n/a |
Price behavior
| Metric | Value | Cohort percentile |
|---|---|---|
| 30d realized volatility (ann.) | +69.3% | n/a |
| 90d realized volatility (ann.) | +66.5% | n/a |
| Max drawdown (1y) | -88.0% | n/a |
| Downside deviation (ann.) | +96.4% | n/a |
| Risk-adjusted return (1y) | -1.85 | n/a |
| 50/200d trend structure Mixed trend structure | 0.00 | n/a |
| Correlation vs BTC (1y) | 0.69 | n/a |
Network
| Metric | Value | Cohort percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Chain TVL | $1.25B | 98 |
| TVL change (90d) | -26.4% | n/a |
| Chain fees (24h) | $787.2K | n/a |
| Chain revenue (24h) | $192.4K | n/a |
| Native token MC / TVL Rough price to book analog for chains | 0.47 | n/a |
| Stablecoin supply on chain | $3.69B | n/a |
| Protocols with TVL | 831 | n/a |
| Top protocol share of TVL Concentration: is the chain one app or an ecosystem | +34.9% | n/a |
Risk
Higher is riskier. The grade always shows its reasons.
- 90d realized volatility: 45 / 100
- 1y max drawdown: 93 / 100
- Downside deviation: 82 / 100
- Illiquidity vs peers: 23 / 100. Inverse of turnover and volume percentiles
- Dilution overhang (1 - MC/FDV): 56 / 100. 34% of fully diluted supply is not yet circulating
- Top protocol share of chain TVL: 51 / 100. 35% of TVL sits in one protocol
- Auto baseline: 50 / 100. Not manually reviewed. Litigation and classification feeds are not wired in this build.
- Asset age and cycle survival: 82 / 100. 1 years of trading history
Why this grade
- Track record and security: 82 / 100. 1 years of trading history
- Volatility and drawdown: 74 / 100.
- Tokenomics and dilution: 56 / 100. 34% of fully diluted supply is not yet circulating
Potential
Opportunity pillars. Pillars without data are excluded and weights renormalize.
- Chain TVL vs peers: 98 / 100
- TVL growth (90d): 22 / 100
- Native MC / TVL valuation: 90 / 100
- Chain fee level: 63 / 100
- ATH distance headroom: 25 / 100
- Price percentile in own trailing history (inverted): 89 / 100. Low percentile means more headroom
- 50/200d trend structure: 50 / 100
- 90d return vs peers: No usable data
- Risk-adjusted return (1y): 15 / 100
- Commit activity (4w): 14 / 100
- Contributor count: 63 / 100
- Ecosystem breadth: 95 / 100
- News signals: Not wired in this build. The pillar is excluded and other weights renormalize.
Trajectory
Probability-weighted scenarios from a volatility cone plus visible modifiers. Ranges and drivers, never a price target.
| Scenario | Probability | Range | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| bear | 25% | $0.0336 to $0.0644 | Historical downside volatility plays out |
| base | 50% | $0.0644 to $0.1234 | Range-bound drift within historical volatility |
| bull | 25% | $0.1234 to $0.2365 | Upside volatility plays out, requires the regime to turn risk-on |
Probability-weighted expected range: $0.0714 to $0.1369
Modifiers applied to the volatility cone
- Market regime (no shift): Global regime indicator is neutral
TVL growth trajectory
Same engine applied to trailing TVL instead of price. Network health and token price can diverge for a while.
| Scenario | Probability | Range | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| bear | 25% | $762.4M to $1.06B | Historical downside volatility plays out |
| base | 50% | $1.06B to $1.47B | Range-bound drift within historical volatility |
| bull | 25% | $1.47B to $2.05B | Upside volatility plays out, requires the regime to turn risk-on |
Probability-weighted expected range: $1.09B to $1.51B
Modifiers applied to the volatility cone
- Market regime (no shift): Global regime indicator is neutral
Calibration logging (did price land in the predicted range) is part of the design but not wired in this build. TokenLens is decision support built for personal use. It is not financial advice. No score removes the need to size positions so that a 100% loss on any alt is survivable.
News and events
Decision calendar: dated, resolvable events only
| Date | Event | Type | Impact | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | FOMC rate decision The single biggest recurring macro driver of crypto beta | macro | medium | market |
| Sep 16, 2026 | FOMC rate decision The single biggest recurring macro driver of crypto beta | macro | medium | market |
| Oct 28, 2026 | FOMC rate decision The single biggest recurring macro driver of crypto beta | macro | medium | market |
| Dec 9, 2026 | FOMC rate decision The single biggest recurring macro driver of crypto beta | macro | medium | market |
This build wires the macro calendar (FOMC). News signals, governance votes, unlock schedules, and regulatory feeds are designed but not yet wired; the narrative pillar is excluded from scoring until they are.
Strategy
A disciplined way to hold it, if you choose to
No allocation template applies. Track it on the watchlist and re-check after the next refresh if the picture changes.