ArbitrumARB
Chain reportGenerated just now · data tier: auto-baseline · refresh
Overview
Quadrant: Speculative bet
Risk / opportunity quadrant
Peer positions are proxies (cap percentile for risk, 90d return percentile for opportunity), not full scores. Cohort: 201 peers in the same market cap band (top 250).
Price history
- note Developer activity data was unavailable for this asset; the development pillar may be thin.
Network
Chain-level TVL, fees, stablecoin float, and ecosystem breadth
TVL history
Top protocols by TVL
| Aave V3 | Lending | $502.8M |
| Spark Savings | Yield | $330.9M |
| Hyperliquid Bridge | Bridge | $199.0M |
| GMX EVM | Derivatives | $195.9M |
| Morpho Blue | Lending | $181.6M |
| USD AI | RWA | $157.3M |
| Uniswap V3 | Dexs | $128.0M |
| Fluid Lending | Lending | $127.9M |
The token-level sections below analyze the chain's native asset (ARB).
Stats
Metric catalog computed at generation time. 201 peers in the same market cap band (top 250).
Market
| Metric | Value | Cohort percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $0.1610 | n/a |
| Market cap | $1.11B | 72 |
| Fully diluted valuation | $1.61B | n/a |
| MC / FDV Low values signal future dilution | 0.69 | 27 |
| 24h volume | $115.6M | 87 |
| Volume / MC turnover Liquidity proxy | 0.10 | 81 |
| Distance from ATH | -93.3% | 28 |
| 7d return | -6.5% | n/a |
| 30d return | -22.6% | n/a |
| 90d return | +105.6% | n/a |
| 365d return | -37.0% | n/a |
Supply and tokenomics
| Metric | Value | Cohort percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Circulating supply | 6,892,115,031 | n/a |
| Max supply | 10,000,000,000 | n/a |
| Dilution overhang (1 - MC/FDV) Approximation of unlock overhang. Verified unlock schedules are not wired in this build. | +31.1% | n/a |
Price behavior
| Metric | Value | Cohort percentile |
|---|---|---|
| 30d realized volatility (ann.) | +96.2% | n/a |
| 90d realized volatility (ann.) | +138.0% | n/a |
| Max drawdown (1y) | -76.3% | n/a |
| Downside deviation (ann.) | +83.3% | n/a |
| Risk-adjusted return (1y) | -0.48 | n/a |
| 50/200d trend structure Mixed trend structure | 0.00 | n/a |
| Correlation vs BTC (1y) | 0.61 | n/a |
Network
| Metric | Value | Cohort percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Chain TVL | $1.46B | 97 |
| TVL change (90d) | +17.4% | n/a |
| Chain fees (24h) | $316.0K | n/a |
| Chain revenue (24h) | $98.3K | n/a |
| Native token MC / TVL Rough price to book analog for chains | 0.76 | n/a |
| Stablecoin supply on chain | $3.38B | n/a |
| Protocols with TVL | 801 | n/a |
| Top protocol share of TVL Concentration: is the chain one app or an ecosystem | +34.4% | n/a |
Risk
Higher is riskier. The grade always shows its reasons.
- 90d realized volatility: 90 / 100
- 1y max drawdown: 84 / 100
- Downside deviation: 70 / 100
- Illiquidity vs peers: 16 / 100. Inverse of turnover and volume percentiles
- Dilution overhang (1 - MC/FDV): 53 / 100. 31% of fully diluted supply is not yet circulating
- Top protocol share of chain TVL: 50 / 100. 34% of TVL sits in one protocol
- Auto baseline: 50 / 100. Not manually reviewed. Litigation and classification feeds are not wired in this build.
- Asset age and cycle survival: 82 / 100. 1 years of trading history
Why this grade
- Track record and security: 82 / 100. 1 years of trading history
- Volatility and drawdown: 81 / 100.
Potential
Opportunity pillars. Pillars without data are excluded and weights renormalize.
- Chain TVL vs peers: 97 / 100
- TVL growth (90d): 62 / 100
- Native MC / TVL valuation: 90 / 100
- Chain fee level: 47 / 100
- ATH distance headroom: 85 / 100
- Price percentile in own trailing history (inverted): 37 / 100. Low percentile means more headroom
- 50/200d trend structure: 50 / 100
- 90d return vs peers: No usable data
- Risk-adjusted return (1y): 28 / 100
- Commit activity (4w): No usable data
- Contributor count: No usable data
- Ecosystem breadth: 95 / 100
- News signals: Not wired in this build. The pillar is excluded and other weights renormalize.
Trajectory
Probability-weighted scenarios from a volatility cone plus visible modifiers. Ranges and drivers, never a price target.
| Scenario | Probability | Range | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| bear | 31% | $0.0582 to $0.1146 | Historical downside volatility plays out, regime stays risk-off |
| base | 50% | $0.1146 to $0.2259 | Range-bound drift within historical volatility |
| bull | 19% | $0.2259 to $0.4451 | Upside volatility plays out, requires the regime to turn risk-on |
Probability-weighted expected range: $0.1183 to $0.2331
Modifiers applied to the volatility cone
- Market regime (bull -6, bear +6): Global regime indicator is risk-off; bull case probability is capped
TVL growth trajectory
Same engine applied to trailing TVL instead of price. Network health and token price can diverge for a while.
| Scenario | Probability | Range | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| bear | 31% | $943.3M to $1.26B | Historical downside volatility plays out, regime stays risk-off |
| base | 50% | $1.26B to $1.69B | Range-bound drift within historical volatility |
| bull | 19% | $1.69B to $2.27B | Upside volatility plays out, requires the regime to turn risk-on |
Probability-weighted expected range: $1.25B to $1.67B
Modifiers applied to the volatility cone
- Market regime (bull -6, bear +6): Global regime indicator is risk-off; bull case probability is capped
Calibration logging (did price land in the predicted range) is part of the design but not wired in this build. TokenLens is decision support built for personal use. It is not financial advice. No score removes the need to size positions so that a 100% loss on any alt is survivable.
News and events
Decision calendar: dated, resolvable events only
| Date | Event | Type | Impact | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2026 | FOMC rate decision The single biggest recurring macro driver of crypto beta | macro | medium | market |
This build wires the macro calendar (FOMC). News signals, governance votes, unlock schedules, and regulatory feeds are designed but not yet wired; the narrative pillar is excluded from scoring until they are.
Strategy
A disciplined way to hold it, if you choose to
Entry: DCA over 4 weeks
Regime is risk-off: a shorter schedule captures depressed prices faster.
Illustrative schedule for $1,000 (scale to your amount):
| Week 1 | Nov 4, 2026 | $250.00 |
| Week 2 | Nov 11, 2026 | $250.00 |
| Week 3 | Nov 18, 2026 | $250.00 |
| Week 4 | Nov 25, 2026 | $250.00 |
Position cap: at most 10% of the portfolio for this tier.
Exit ladder (editable defaults)
- Position up 50% from cost basis: Sell 20%
- Position up 100% from cost basis: Sell 20%
- Position up 200% from cost basis: Sell 25%
Review triggers, not stops
- Position falls 30% from your cost basis: reassess, do not auto-sell
- Risk grade deteriorates by a full letter on refresh
- A scheduled unlock above 2% of supply approaches (verify unlock data externally; not wired in this build)