ProvenanceHASH

Chain report

Generated just now · data tier: auto-baseline · refresh

Overview

Quadrant: Avoid

Opportunity score

42.3

0 to 100, higher is better

Risk score

78.5

Risk grade D

Overall rating

22.4

balanced profile dampener

Chain TVL

$1.53B

Price $0.0084

Risk / opportunity quadrant

Upper left: Core. Upper right: Speculative bets.Lower left: Stable but stale. Lower right: Avoid.

Peer positions are proxies (cap percentile for risk, 90d return percentile for opportunity), not full scores. Cohort: 223 peers in the same market cap band (top 250).

Price history

note Developer activity data was unavailable for this asset; the development pillar may be thin.

Network

Chain-level TVL, fees, stablecoin float, and ecosystem breadth

TVL

$1.53B

-7.3% over 90d

Fees (24h)

$222.00

Revenue $222.00

Stablecoin supply

$113.2M

Protocols

Top protocol holds 100% of TVL

TVL history

Top protocols by TVL

Figure Markets Exchange	OTC Marketplace	$1.53B
Figure Markets Democratized Prime	RWA Lending	$47.2M
NUVA	Yield	$605.0K

The token-level sections below analyze the chain's native asset (HASH).

Stats

Metric catalog computed at generation time. 223 peers in the same market cap band (top 250).

Market

Metric	Value	Cohort percentile
Price	$0.0084	n/a
Market cap	$468.9M	65
Fully diluted valuation	$801.5M	n/a
MC / FDV Low values signal future dilution	0.59	22
24h volume	$20.2K	4
Volume / MC turnover Liquidity proxy	0.00	11
Distance from ATH	-86.0%	44
7d return	-8.1%	n/a
30d return	-7.1%	n/a
90d return	-17.0%	n/a
365d return	-68.0%	n/a

Supply and tokenomics

Metric	Value	Cohort percentile
Circulating supply	55,568,259,740	n/a
Max supply	100,000,000,000	n/a
Dilution overhang (1 - MC/FDV) Approximation of unlock overhang. Verified unlock schedules are not wired in this build.	+41.5%	n/a

Development

Metric	Value	Cohort percentile
Commits (4 weeks)	0	n/a
PR contributors	0	n/a

Price behavior

Metric	Value	Cohort percentile
30d realized volatility (ann.)	+133.3%	n/a
90d realized volatility (ann.)	+121.7%	n/a
Max drawdown (1y)	-84.7%	n/a
Downside deviation (ann.)	+124.9%	n/a
Risk-adjusted return (1y)	-0.88	n/a
50/200d trend structure Downtrend: price below 50d, 50d below 200d	-1.00	n/a
Correlation vs BTC (1y)	0.01	n/a

Network

Metric	Value	Cohort percentile
Chain TVL	$1.53B	98
TVL change (90d)	-7.3%	n/a
Chain fees (24h)	$222.00	n/a
Chain revenue (24h)	$222.00	n/a
Native token MC / TVL Rough price to book analog for chains	0.31	n/a
Stablecoin supply on chain	$113.2M	n/a
Protocols with TVL	3	n/a
Top protocol share of TVL Concentration: is the chain one app or an ecosystem	+100.0%	n/a

Risk

Higher is riskier. The grade always shows its reasons.

Volatility and drawdownweight 20%

90d realized volatility: 85 / 100
1y max drawdown: 91 / 100
Downside deviation: 85 / 100

Liquidityweight 15%

Illiquidity vs peers: 92 / 100. Inverse of turnover and volume percentiles

Tokenomics and dilutionweight 20%

Dilution overhang (1 - MC/FDV): 66 / 100. 41% of fully diluted supply is not yet circulating

Concentration and dependenceweight 15%

Top protocol share of chain TVL: 95 / 100. 100% of TVL sits in one protocol

Legal and regulatoryweight 15%

Auto baseline: 50 / 100. Not manually reviewed. Litigation and classification feeds are not wired in this build.

Track record and securityweight 15%

Asset age and cycle survival: 82 / 100. 1 years of trading history

Why this grade

Concentration and dependence: 95 / 100. 100% of TVL sits in one protocol
Liquidity: 92 / 100. Inverse of turnover and volume percentiles
Volatility and drawdown: 87 / 100.
Track record and security: 82 / 100. 1 years of trading history
Tokenomics and dilution: 66 / 100. 41% of fully diluted supply is not yet circulating

Potential

Opportunity pillars. Pillars without data are excluded and weights renormalize.

Fundamentals and usageweight 30%

Chain TVL vs peers: 98 / 100
TVL growth (90d): 39 / 100
Native MC / TVL valuation: 90 / 100
Chain fee level: 15 / 100

Valuation headroomweight 20%

ATH distance headroom: 27 / 100
Price percentile in own trailing history (inverted): 98 / 100. Low percentile means more headroom

Momentum and trendweight 20%

50/200d trend structure: 20 / 100
90d return vs peers: No usable data
Risk-adjusted return (1y): 18 / 100

Development and ecosystemweight 15%

Commit activity (4w): 5 / 100
Contributor count: 5 / 100
Ecosystem breadth: 20 / 100

Narrative and catalystsweight 15%

no data

News signals: Not wired in this build. The pillar is excluded and other weights renormalize.

Trajectory

Probability-weighted scenarios from a volatility cone plus visible modifiers. Ranges and drivers, never a price target.

Annualized volatility 130%

bear (28%)base (45%)bull (27%)history

Scenario	Probability	Range	Driver
bear	28%	$0.0017 to $0.0053	Historical downside volatility plays out, supply emissions add pressure
base	45%	$0.0053 to $0.0134	Downtrend persists but stabilizes inside the cone
bull	27%	$0.0134 to $0.0335	Upside volatility plays out, requires the regime to turn risk-on

Probability-weighted expected range: $0.0065 to $0.0165

Modifiers applied to the volatility cone

Market regime (no shift): Global regime indicator is neutral
Valuation band (bull +6, bear -6): Trading in the bottom decile of its own trailing range
Unlock and dilution pressure (bear +5, bear range widened): Only 59% of fully diluted supply circulates; emissions weigh on price
Trend structure (bull -4, bear +4): Price below the 50d average, 50d below the 200d

TVL growth trajectory

Same engine applied to trailing TVL instead of price. Network health and token price can diverge for a while.

Annualized volatility 96%

bear (23%)base (50%)bull (27%)history

Scenario	Probability	Range	Driver
bear	23%	$555.2M to $1.09B	Historical downside volatility plays out
base	50%	$1.09B to $2.15B	Downtrend persists but stabilizes inside the cone
bull	27%	$2.15B to $4.22B	Upside volatility plays out, requires the regime to turn risk-on

Probability-weighted expected range: $1.25B to $2.46B

Modifiers applied to the volatility cone

Market regime (no shift): Global regime indicator is neutral
Valuation band (bull +6, bear -6): Trading in the bottom decile of its own trailing range
Trend structure (bull -4, bear +4): Price below the 50d average, 50d below the 200d

Calibration logging (did price land in the predicted range) is part of the design but not wired in this build. TokenLens is decision support built for personal use. It is not financial advice. No score removes the need to size positions so that a 100% loss on any alt is survivable.

News and events

Decision calendar: dated, resolvable events only

Date	Event	Type	Impact	Scope
Jul 29, 2026	FOMC rate decision The single biggest recurring macro driver of crypto beta	macro	medium	market
Sep 16, 2026	FOMC rate decision The single biggest recurring macro driver of crypto beta	macro	medium	market
Oct 28, 2026	FOMC rate decision The single biggest recurring macro driver of crypto beta	macro	medium	market
Dec 9, 2026	FOMC rate decision The single biggest recurring macro driver of crypto beta	macro	medium	market

This build wires the macro calendar (FOMC). News signals, governance votes, unlock schedules, and regulatory feeds are designed but not yet wired; the narrative pillar is excluded from scoring until they are.

Strategy

A disciplined way to hold it, if you choose to

No allocation suggestedRisk grade D with opportunity 42.3 clears neither the quality bar (grade B-C and opportunity 60+) nor the speculative bar (opportunity 70+).

No allocation template applies. Track it on the watchlist and re-check after the next refresh if the picture changes.