EthereumETH

Chain report

Generated just now · data tier: auto-baseline · refresh

Overview

Quadrant: Core

Opportunity score

66.6

0 to 100, higher is better

Risk score

33.1

Risk grade B

Overall rating

53.4

balanced profile dampener

Chain TVL

$41.77B

Price $1,923

Risk / opportunity quadrant

Upper left: Core. Upper right: Speculative bets.Lower left: Stable but stale. Lower right: Avoid.

Peer positions are proxies (cap percentile for risk, 90d return percentile for opportunity), not full scores. Cohort: 249 peers in the same market cap band (top 250).

Price history

Network

Chain-level TVL, fees, stablecoin float, and ecosystem breadth

TVL

$41.77B

-8.9% over 90d

Fees (24h)

$8.6M

Revenue $1.4M

Stablecoin supply

$150.06B

Protocols

1456

Top protocol holds 42% of TVL

TVL history

Top protocols by TVL

Lido	Liquid Staking	$17.73B
Aave V3	Lending	$11.55B
SSV Network	Staking Pool	$9.34B
Binance staked ETH	Liquid Staking	$6.72B
LayerZero V2	Bridge	$6.56B
Sky Lending	CDP	$6.09B
EigenCloud	Restaking	$5.17B
Ethena USDe	Basis Trading	$4.04B

The token-level sections below analyze the chain's native asset (ETH).

Stats

Metric catalog computed at generation time. 249 peers in the same market cap band (top 250).

Market

Metric	Value	Cohort percentile
Price	$1,923	n/a
Market cap	$232.07B	100
Fully diluted valuation	$232.07B	n/a
MC / FDV Low values signal future dilution	1.00	79
24h volume	$10.99B	99
Volume / MC turnover Liquidity proxy	0.05	62
Distance from ATH	-61.1%	59
7d return	+1.7%	n/a
30d return	+12.8%	n/a
90d return	-19.1%	n/a
365d return	-48.9%	n/a

Supply and tokenomics

Metric	Value	Cohort percentile
Circulating supply	120,682,803	n/a
Max supply No max supply cap	n/a	n/a
Dilution overhang (1 - MC/FDV) Approximation of unlock overhang. Verified unlock schedules are not wired in this build.	0.0%	n/a

Development

Metric	Value	Cohort percentile
Commits (4 weeks)	41	n/a
PR contributors	906	n/a

Price behavior

Metric	Value	Cohort percentile
30d realized volatility (ann.)	+45.7%	n/a
90d realized volatility (ann.)	+48.4%	n/a
Max drawdown (1y)	-67.6%	n/a
Downside deviation (ann.)	+68.7%	n/a
Risk-adjusted return (1y)	-1.01	n/a
50/200d trend structure Mixed trend structure	0.00	n/a
Correlation vs BTC (1y)	0.88	n/a

Network

Metric	Value	Cohort percentile
Chain TVL	$41.77B	100
TVL change (90d)	-8.9%	n/a
Chain fees (24h)	$8.6M	n/a
Chain revenue (24h)	$1.4M	n/a
Native token MC / TVL Rough price to book analog for chains	5.56	n/a
Stablecoin supply on chain	$150.06B	n/a
Protocols with TVL	1,456	n/a
Top protocol share of TVL Concentration: is the chain one app or an ecosystem	+42.4%	n/a

Risk

Higher is riskier. The grade always shows its reasons.

Volatility and drawdownweight 20%

90d realized volatility: 28 / 100
1y max drawdown: 76 / 100
Downside deviation: 58 / 100

Liquidityweight 15%

Illiquidity vs peers: 20 / 100. Inverse of turnover and volume percentiles

Tokenomics and dilutionweight 20%

Dilution overhang (1 - MC/FDV): 10 / 100. 0% of fully diluted supply is not yet circulating

Concentration and dependenceweight 15%

Top protocol share of chain TVL: 61 / 100. 42% of TVL sits in one protocol

Legal and regulatoryweight 15%

Auto baseline: 35 / 100. Not manually reviewed. Litigation and classification feeds are not wired in this build.

Track record and securityweight 15%

Asset age and cycle survival: 20 / 100. 11 years of trading history

Why this grade

Concentration and dependence: 61 / 100. 42% of TVL sits in one protocol

Potential

Opportunity pillars. Pillars without data are excluded and weights renormalize.

Fundamentals and usageweight 30%

Chain TVL vs peers: 100 / 100
TVL growth (90d): 37 / 100
Native MC / TVL valuation: 64 / 100
Chain fee level: 91 / 100

Valuation headroomweight 20%

ATH distance headroom: 74 / 100
Price percentile in own trailing history (inverted): 86 / 100. Low percentile means more headroom

Momentum and trendweight 20%

50/200d trend structure: 50 / 100
90d return vs peers: No usable data
Risk-adjusted return (1y): 15 / 100

Development and ecosystemweight 15%

Commit activity (4w): 54 / 100
Contributor count: 95 / 100
Ecosystem breadth: 95 / 100

Narrative and catalystsweight 15%

no data

News signals: Not wired in this build. The pillar is excluded and other weights renormalize.

Trajectory

Probability-weighted scenarios from a volatility cone plus visible modifiers. Ranges and drivers, never a price target.

Annualized volatility 66%

bear (25%)base (50%)bull (25%)history

Scenario	Probability	Range	Driver
bear	25%	$951.44 to $1.5K	Historical downside volatility plays out
base	50%	$1.5K to $2.4K	Range-bound drift within historical volatility
bull	25%	$2.4K to $3.9K	Upside volatility plays out, requires the regime to turn risk-on

Probability-weighted expected range: $1.6K to $2.6K

Modifiers applied to the volatility cone

Market regime (no shift): Global regime indicator is neutral

TVL growth trajectory

Same engine applied to trailing TVL instead of price. Network health and token price can diverge for a while.

Annualized volatility 47%

bear (25%)base (50%)bull (25%)history

Scenario	Probability	Range	Driver
bear	25%	$25.40B to $35.34B	Historical downside volatility plays out
base	50%	$35.34B to $49.16B	Range-bound drift within historical volatility
bull	25%	$49.16B to $68.38B	Upside volatility plays out, requires the regime to turn risk-on

Probability-weighted expected range: $36.31B to $50.51B

Modifiers applied to the volatility cone

Market regime (no shift): Global regime indicator is neutral

Calibration logging (did price land in the predicted range) is part of the design but not wired in this build. TokenLens is decision support built for personal use. It is not financial advice. No score removes the need to size positions so that a 100% loss on any alt is survivable.

News and events

Decision calendar: dated, resolvable events only

Date	Event	Type	Impact	Scope
Jul 29, 2026	FOMC rate decision The single biggest recurring macro driver of crypto beta	macro	medium	market
Sep 16, 2026	FOMC rate decision The single biggest recurring macro driver of crypto beta	macro	medium	market
Oct 28, 2026	FOMC rate decision The single biggest recurring macro driver of crypto beta	macro	medium	market
Dec 9, 2026	FOMC rate decision The single biggest recurring macro driver of crypto beta	macro	medium	market

This build wires the macro calendar (FOMC). News signals, governance votes, unlock schedules, and regulatory feeds are designed but not yet wired; the narrative pillar is excluded from scoring until they are.

Strategy

A disciplined way to hold it, if you choose to

Core (BTC/ETH tier)Risk grade B with majors-tier depth. Suitable as a portfolio anchor.

Entry: DCA over 8 weeks

Neutral regime: default schedule.

Illustrative schedule for $1,000 (scale to your amount):

Week 1	Jul 21, 2026	$125.00
Week 2	Jul 28, 2026	$125.00
Week 3	Aug 4, 2026	$125.00
Week 4	Aug 11, 2026	$125.00
plus 4 more weekly installments

Position cap: at most 70% of the portfolio for this tier.

Exit ladder (editable defaults)

Position up 50% from cost basis: Sell 20%
Position up 100% from cost basis: Sell 20%
Position up 200% from cost basis: Sell 25%

Review triggers, not stops

Position falls 30% from your cost basis: reassess, do not auto-sell
Risk grade deteriorates by a full letter on refresh
A scheduled unlock above 2% of supply approaches (verify unlock data externally; not wired in this build)